▌ OPERATIONAL SECTOR

Conflict and War

10 BRIEFS FILED

Iran-US Truce Collapses as IRGC Strikes Gulf Bases

IRGC strikes on four U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain have effectively collapsed the June ceasefire with Iran, following renewed U.S. airstrikes and Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War10 JUL 2026

▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Hormuz Ceasefire Collapses as Iran Strikes Bahrain, Kuwait

The US-Iran ceasefire has effectively collapsed after tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz drew retaliatory US strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets and an IRGC missile-and-drone response against American and allied positions in Bahrain and Kuwait, raising the probability of a wider Gulf war.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War10 JUL 2026

▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Iran Rebuilds War Machine as Ceasefire Clock Ticks Down

Western intelligence assessments confirm Iran has reconstituted approximately 75% of its pre-war military capability within weeks of the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum ceasefire, with 30 of 33 missile sites restored to operational status and continued Russian-origin weapons transfers documented.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War29 JUN 2026

▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Sudan's Drone War Claims 1,000 Civilian Lives in Five Months

UN documentation confirms drone strikes killed more than 1,000 Sudanese civilians in the first five months of 2026, with UAE-supplied Chinese drones attributed to the RSF establishing a new proxy warfare model reshaping conflict doctrine in sub-Saharan Africa.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War17 JUN 2026

▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses as Iranian Missiles Strike Gulf Bases

The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire into a second consecutive day of exchanged strikes has shifted the war's burden onto Gulf states hosting US forces, with Kuwait and Bahrain now absorbing direct Iranian missile fire.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War14 JUN 2026

▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles at Gulf States After US Destroys Hormuz Radar Sites

US strikes on Iranian radar installations at Goruk and Qeshm Island, following Iranian drone attacks on the Strait of Hormuz and ballistic missile launches against Kuwait and Bahrain, signal the April 2026 ceasefire is approaching systemic failure.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War11 JUN 2026

▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

US Strikes Iranian Air Defences After Apache Downed Over Hormuz

CENTCOM's retaliatory strikes after the assessed Iranian downing of a US Apache over the Strait of Hormuz mark the first direct US-Iran exchange of fire since Tehran's conditional suspension, shifting escalation control from the Israel-Iran axis to Washington and Tehran.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War11 JUN 2026

▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Gulf Escalation: US and Iran Trade Strikes as Kuwait Caught in Crossfire

The US-Iran ceasefire in the Gulf is fracturing following a US strike on Iranian military sites and Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile attack on US forces in Kuwait, intercepted by American air defences.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War3 JUN 2026

▌ ANALYSIS

Hormuz on the Edge: Iran's IRGC Tests Ceasefire Limits as Nuclear Deal Hangs in the Balance

Nearly three months after the United States and Israel launched the most significant direct military campaign against Iran in modern history, a fragile ceasefire is fracturing in real time. On 25 May, US forces conducted what the Pentagon described as "self-defence strikes" against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boats actively laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz — the global chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of the world's traded oil transits daily. The IRGC has responded by threatening reciprocal action and redefining the Strait as a "vast operational area." Peace negotiations in Doha remain deadlocked on the nuclear question. The conflict may have entered a post-offensive phase, but it has not ended.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War26 MAY 2026

▌ CONFLICT INTEL // UKRAINE

SBU Charges 81 in Counterintelligence Sweep Including 20 Serving Officers: Russian Penetration of Ukraine's Security Apparatus Deeper Than Acknowledged

Ukraine's Security Service has filed charges against 81 individuals in an ongoing counterintelligence operation, with 20 of those charged being current SBU officers — a disclosure confirming Russian intelligence penetration of Ukrainian security structures at scale and raising immediate questions about operational security across the conflict theatre.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War26 MAY 2026