UNCLASSIFIED // FOR PUBLIC RELEASE▸ INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING ACTIVESPYWITNESS NEWS
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ESTABLISHED 2023
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Conflict and War

22 BRIEFS FILED
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North Korea Expands War Role With Drone Operators Deployed to Kursk

Ukrainian defense intelligence assesses North Korea has expanded its Kursk deployment to roughly 8,500 troops including 400 drone operators now directing Russian strikes, with a further 50,000-troop commitment possible after a September Putin-Kim summit.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War
▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Tehran Rejects U.S. Ultimatum as Hormuz Standoff Hardens

Iran's senior military leadership publicly rejected Washington's terms for ending the Gulf conflict as the 60-day ceasefire deadline expired, with the US preparing expanded sanctions and Tehran granting only selective Strait of Hormuz transit, sustaining elevated risk of renewed direct strikes.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War
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Kyiv Barrage Signals Opening Move in Independence Day Offensive

Russia's largest missile-drone barrage on Kyiv in weeks killed at least 15 people and struck a children's hospital hours after Ukrainian intelligence, citing US sources, warned of a coordinated Russian strike campaign timed to Ukraine's 24 August Independence Day.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War23 AUG 2026
▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Trump Threatens Oman as Hormuz Blockade Standoff Hardens

President Trump's threat to bomb Oman over its Strait of Hormuz shipping-route agreement with Iran marks a shift toward coercive pressure on a third-party Gulf state as the US naval blockade standoff with Tehran hardens past its 60-day negotiation window.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War20 AUG 2026
▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Drone Strike on Egyptian Soil Signals Iran War's Widening Arc

An unclaimed drone strike on Egypt's Damietta LNG terminal represents the first attack on Egyptian territory since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, confirming the war's expansion beyond the Persian Gulf into Mediterranean energy infrastructure.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War4 AUG 2026
▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Ukraine's Deepest Strike Yet Forces NATO's Hand on Missiles

Ukraine executed its largest long-range drone strike of the war against Russian strategic bomber bases as Germany agreed to host US Tomahawk missiles, signaling both sides' shift toward deeper, longer-range confrontation.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War4 AUG 2026
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US Naval Blockade Tightens as Iran-Oman Near Hormuz Route Deal

US Central Command has redirected 44 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded two enforcing its naval blockade of Iran, even as Tehran and Muscat report their negotiations over a new Strait of Hormuz route have entered their final stages without reopening the waterway itself.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War4 AUG 2026
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Iran Weighed Missile Strike on Ukraine After Caspian Ship Attack

Iran's government prepared a retaliatory ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian port after Kyiv struck an Iranian cargo vessel in the Caspian Sea, a plan abandoned only after direct foreign-minister diplomacy, revealing how close the separate Iran and Ukraine wars came to formally merging.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War31 JUL 2026
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Houthis Declare Saudi Naval Blockade as Iran War Widens

Yemen's Houthi rebels have declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia in solidarity with Iran, opening a second maritime chokepoint threat alongside the paralyzed Strait of Hormuz and placing roughly 2.5 million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports at risk as regional mediators press Washington and Tehran to accept a ten-day ceasefire.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War22 JUL 2026
▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

US-Iran War Enters Ninth Night as Conflict Spreads to Jordan

US and Iranian forces exchanged fire for a ninth consecutive night on 19-20 July, with Iranian missiles striking Jordan and shrapnel reaching Israel near Eilat as the American troop death toll hit 17, signaling a war of attrition neither side has been able to close out.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War20 JUL 2026
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Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed After Third US Strike Wave

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping after a third consecutive wave of U.S. airstrikes shattered the February ceasefire, threatening a fifth of the world's oil flow and raising the risk of a wider regional war.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War12 JUL 2026
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Iran Strikes Ship, Shuts Hormuz Again as US Hits Back

Iran's attack on the container ship M/V GFS Galaxy and renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a third wave of US airstrikes within days, leaving Oman's untested two-corridor shipping proposal as the only concrete de-escalation track on the table.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War12 JUL 2026
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Iran-US Truce Collapses as IRGC Strikes Gulf Bases

IRGC strikes on four U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain have effectively collapsed the June ceasefire with Iran, following renewed U.S. airstrikes and Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War10 JUL 2026
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Hormuz Ceasefire Collapses as Iran Strikes Bahrain, Kuwait

The US-Iran ceasefire has effectively collapsed after tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz drew retaliatory US strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets and an IRGC missile-and-drone response against American and allied positions in Bahrain and Kuwait, raising the probability of a wider Gulf war.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War10 JUL 2026
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Iran Rebuilds War Machine as Ceasefire Clock Ticks Down

Western intelligence assessments confirm Iran has reconstituted approximately 75% of its pre-war military capability within weeks of the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum ceasefire, with 30 of 33 missile sites restored to operational status and continued Russian-origin weapons transfers documented.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War29 JUN 2026
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Sudan's Drone War Claims 1,000 Civilian Lives in Five Months

UN documentation confirms drone strikes killed more than 1,000 Sudanese civilians in the first five months of 2026, with UAE-supplied Chinese drones attributed to the RSF establishing a new proxy warfare model reshaping conflict doctrine in sub-Saharan Africa.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War17 JUN 2026
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US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses as Iranian Missiles Strike Gulf Bases

The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire into a second consecutive day of exchanged strikes has shifted the war's burden onto Gulf states hosting US forces, with Kuwait and Bahrain now absorbing direct Iranian missile fire.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War14 JUN 2026
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Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles at Gulf States After US Destroys Hormuz Radar Sites

US strikes on Iranian radar installations at Goruk and Qeshm Island, following Iranian drone attacks on the Strait of Hormuz and ballistic missile launches against Kuwait and Bahrain, signal the April 2026 ceasefire is approaching systemic failure.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War11 JUN 2026
▌ INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

US Strikes Iranian Air Defences After Apache Downed Over Hormuz

CENTCOM's retaliatory strikes after the assessed Iranian downing of a US Apache over the Strait of Hormuz mark the first direct US-Iran exchange of fire since Tehran's conditional suspension, shifting escalation control from the Israel-Iran axis to Washington and Tehran.

◆ MODERATEConflict and War11 JUN 2026
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Gulf Escalation: US and Iran Trade Strikes as Kuwait Caught in Crossfire

The US-Iran ceasefire in the Gulf is fracturing following a US strike on Iranian military sites and Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile attack on US forces in Kuwait, intercepted by American air defences.

◆ HIGH CONFIDENCEConflict and War3 JUN 2026